NBA Betting Picks: 2/22/07

Sacramento (+190) @ Washington (-220)

Pick: Washington Wizards

The Matchup:

The Wizards are a pretty solid favorite in this game. But, I feel comfortable saying that they’re virtually a lock to win it. The Wizards have been under-appreciated all season, and will continue to surprise people, possibly all the way to the NBA Finals. The Kings are struggling, and it’s getting to that point in the season where the players are going to throw in the towel mentally. The Wizards on the other hand are battling for playoff position and know that these cream-puff home games are essential come April.

The Numbers:

The numbers scream Washington, and I almost always go with the numbers. The Wizards need to win this game 68.7% of the time to make the bet of value. So, we have to be pretty sure. They win 74.1% of their home games though. In addition, the Kings lose almost 81% of their road games! Most games have some gray area, not this one. Washington will win about 75% of the time, giving you a 6.3% margin on the line.

The Stars:

Agent Zero. Gilbert Arenas flew under the radar for far too long. He is completely un-guardable. But, Arenas doesn’t even need to have a good game for the Wizards to win from a scoring standpoint. Since Washington was demolished by Phoenix a few weeks ago, Arenas has incorporated a Nash-like ability to create passing angles via penetration into his game. If he’s not hot himself, he’ll get others involved and it will be more than enough.

On the other side of the coin, Mike Bibby could be traded today. If he’s traded, the Kings will literally be short-handed, and the odds are against them severely even if Bibby plays, this is a gold-mine of a bet.

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Chicago (+135) @ Cleveland (-155)

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers

The Matchup:

What a rivalry this is growing back into. Ever since the days that Michael Jordan dropped the game-winner, and then almost kicked his defender, Craig Ehlo in the face while celebrating there’s always been a little extra going into this series.

This game will be won on the defensive end of the floor, and by rebounding the basketball. With the home-court energy and TNT in the house, you’ve got to expect Cleveland to win the hustle war.

The Numbers:

The numbers love Cleveland, and I love the numbers. Cleveland needs to win this game 60.8% of the time to make the bet of good value. They’ve won 74.1% of their home games. While the Bulls are a tough customer, they lose two-thirds of their road games. I’d say this game gives you a 7-8% margin on the line, which is enormous for a home-team favorite on National TV; or any game for that matter. So all those of you who want to watch your bet come through tonight, go ahead and take the Cavs. They’re a 68% shot to win.

The Stars:

There are plenty of good players on both teams, but only one of them is the best player in the NBA. This game, like every game involving Cleveland is all about LeBron James. The Bulls interior defense is solid and could present problems for him, but expect him to create a lot of points in the transition game coming from defensive stops. The Bulls tendency to take long-shots should create a lot of running opportunities for the Cavs. This game has the potential to be a serious blowout, expect to see some very strong runs from Cleveland and some razzle-dazzle from King James in the open-floor.