February 28. 2007

Seattle (+120) @ LA Clippers (-140)
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers

I can't believe this line. Monkeys throwing darts. Ever since Rashard Lewis returned, the Sonics have been receiving far too much love from the odds-makers. They did win two road games to snap their record 16 game road losing streak, but since then they have started a new road losing streak, including getting bludgeoned in San Antonio. The Clippers are a very physical team that depends on interior scoring, particularly from Elton Brand. They will dominate Seattle in all of the less glorious phases of the game, which have a tremendous amount to do with the outcome, particularly rebounding.
Livingston went down for the Clippers last night, and that is the primary reason that this game is priced so well. Livingston's a great player, but comeon, he doesn't effect the Clippers this much. Cassell may be old, but he is the secret ingredient that actually causes the Clippers to win; Livingston is the team's future backcourt leader, but Cassell is the team's leader in the present. There's something about Cassell, his leadership and his enormous balls down the stretch, that just wins basketball games. The Livingston injury could even catapolt the Clippers to a playoff run.
This game is an easy call for two very basic reasons though. The Clippers win about 2/3 of their home games this year. The Sonics are 6-21 on the road. Doesn't take anything more than common sense to figure out that the Clippers are a huge favorite to win this game. Take the Clippers with confidence.

Miami (+125) @ Washington (-145)
Pick: Washington Wizards

The Wizards are the most under-respected team in the league constantly, and you could've made a boat load betting them night in and night out for the last three months. They are 8:1 to win the east! I'd take that bet too, they should be 4:1 at worst for a million reasons, the biggest of which is that they own every team in the conference, except Miami. Ahhh, but Miami is no longer Miami. No Wade, no shot. They're going to miss the playoffs. Period.
Miami's anicent roster can't run with the young Washington team. This game could be very ugly in terms of the margin- I fully endorse taking the Wizards to cover the point spread too, but I focus on picking moneylines efficiently. This is the kind of game in which Pat Riley might have a stroke on the sidelines as he watches the new leader in his division dominate his hopeless squad of has-beens. They have an All-start roster........a decade ago.
The Wizards have won 75% of their home games this year! They need to win tonight only 59.2% of the time to make this a good bet. Is this Miami team going to pose even an average challenge to the Wizards. No, not even a little. Love Washington.


Charlotte (+380) @ Sacramento (-480)
Pick: Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats are consistently under-priced on the road. It's so easy to pick against a young team that's not going to make the playoffs this year on the road, but these odds are obsurd, night in and night out. They've won 32% of their road games this year. That is awful, sure. So why do the odds consistently say they'll lose even more often?! We bet on sports to win money, not to win games. You only need to win this game 20.8% of the time for it to be a good bet! This isn't the Globe-trotters! Anything can happen night in and night out. Furthermore, Charlotte has already proven it's ability to win out West- winning a back-to-back at Denver and the Lakers earlier in the season. While you will lose this game a little more than 2/3 of the time, the tremendous amount of money you get for the win more than dignifies picking the Bobcats. Sacramento is also playing with a tremendous amount of apathy these days, and the Bobcats are young and excited about their steady improvement, and looming offseason acquistions. Remember this is about winning money, not winning games. If they lose this game three out of four times, you would make a net of $80 (betting $100/game). Any night could be that winning night, so you must bet these kind of poorly priced upsets constantly. Take the Bobcats and feel very comfortable with your odds.


New York (+170) @ Boston (-200)
Pick: New York Knicks

Atlanta (+230) @ New Orleans (-270)
Pick: Atlanta Hawks

Utah (-220) @ Memphis (+190)
Pick: Utah Jazz

Toronto (+190) @ Houston (-220)
Pick: Houston Rockets

Orlando (+200) @ Denver (-230)
Pick: Orlando Magic

Phoenix (-410) @ Philadelphia (+310)
Pick: If you must, Phoenix is ok. But I'd leave it alone.

Monday February 26th

Denver (-140) @ Memphis (+120)
Pick: Denver Nuggets

This game is the best favorite of the day by far. The Nuggets have been struggling, but that's no reason not to pick them here. Remember this is like the stock market, buy low and sell high.
The Nuggets have been a solid road team this season, winning 48% of their games. Memphis is a much easier than average road game for the Nuggets, so we can feel comfortable paying the small premium that the handicappers are charging for Denver. The Nuggets have also owned Memphis over the last six years, and Memphis was a mid-range playoff caliber team during most of that stretch. This is a chance to win a solid chunk of change a very high percentage of the time. Take the Nuggets.

Portland (+240) @ Seattle (-280)
This is a game that is much more of a toss-up than the odds would indicated. Seattle is a small favorite, so if you're trying to win as many games as possible tonight, take Seattle. However, if you're trying to win money, which is what gambling is all about, then take Portland and the excessive value they are receiving. Portland has won 42.1% of it's road games this season. They only need to win 29.4% of the time to make tonight's bet a good value. It's safe to say that Seattle is a below average team too, so their chances to win are probably more like 45% giving you a 15.6% rake on the odds. Take Portland, great shot at winning big odds.

Charlotte (+350) @ LA Clippers (-450)
The Bobcats haven't been given enough credit from Vegas at any point this season. On the other hand, the Clippers are sorely overrated due to the success they had last season. Their style doesn't fit very well with the new rules this season, and they're really just a below average team now, despite what they may look like on paper. Charlotte wins 33% of their road games, but only needs to win tonight's game 22% of the time to make the bet of good value. The Clippers have had a solid season at home, winning 64.3% of the time, but that means they still lose 35.7% of their games, a far cry from the 22% of the time they'd have to lose tonight. The Bobcats continue to improve as their young team is coming into it's own. They're not a favorite by any stretch of the imagination, but they are a very under-valued underdog tonight. Take Charlotte.

Sacramento (+125) @ Philadelphia (-145)
Pick: Sacramento Kings

Miami (+145) @ New York (-165)
Pick: New York Knicks

Toronto (+280) @ San Antonio (-360)
Pick: Toronto Raptors

Boston (+350) @ Houston (-450)
Pick: Houston Rockets

Orlando (+250) @ Chicago (-300)
Pick: Orlando Magic- but stay away from this one, it's a very good line.

LA Lakers (+240) @ Utah (-280)
Pick: Utah Jazz

Feb 23rd 2007 NBA Picks

NBA Picks- 2/23/07

Washington (+310) @ Chicago (-410)
Pick: Washington Wizards

The match-up:
There’s a lot of bad blood between these two teams stemming from the playoff encounter two years ago. The teams play vastly different styles. The Wizards are an offensive powerhouse while Chicago is a big, physical defensive team. From a match-up perspective, the Bulls should never be this big of a favorite, because they rely on jump-shooting to score and thus are capable of going very cold on any given night, regardless of the defensive quality of their opponent. On the other side of the coin, the Wizards are a potent offensive machine, led by Gilbert Arenas who can score at anytime from anywhere on the floor. The Wizards aren’t particularly vulnerable to being slowed by a good defense because they are such a good three point shooting team. Whoever guards Arenas will not be a top-notch defender as the Bulls defensive strength is at the 3, 4 and 5 positions.

The numbers:
The National TV effect is very much in play in this game. When people bet on a Nationally Televised game, they usually intend to watch it. Nobody wants to watch a team that’s supposed to lose, lose. People bet to win bets, not to win money. The Bulls are certainly a favorite in this game, but they’re being given way too much love from the odds-makers due to this effect. The Wizards only need to win the game 24..4% of the time to make this bet of good value! They have a better record than the Bulls on the season! You’re telling me that home court advantage matters so much that the better team should be a 3:1 underdog?! No way. The Wizards win this game at least 35% of the time, giving you a massive 10% edge on the odds. I love this game, even though the Bulls will win almost 2/3 of the time. Gamble to win money. Not to win bets. Washington is a beautiful pick here.

Utah (+175) @ Denver (-205)
Pick: Utah Jazz

The match-up:
In spite of their superior record, Utah seems to be constantly underrated. Sure, Carlos Boozer is out, but the Jazz play a team-oriented game and thus are not as affected by the loss of any one player as many other teams are. The Nuggets have been under-achieving all season, and have been sorely overrated since Iverson arrived. Iverson replacing Andre Miller was actually a downgrade for the Nuggets for several reasons. First, Iverson is a tremendous defensive liability while Miller was the Nuggets premiere perimeter defender. Secondly, Miller created shots for all of the horses on the front-line of the Nuggets, and by shots, I mean un-contested dunks. Iverson moves the defense well, but is nowhere in Miller’s league as a passer.



Home Court:
The Nuggets edge on their home floor is the altitude. As the visiting team arrives in their locker room, they are greeted by a sign that warns of them of the health risks of physical exertion in high altitude. Well, Salt Lake City is almost a mile high itself, at over 4300 feet. The Jazz are used to coping with altitude and will likely not be affected at all.

The numbers:
You know I love numbers. And the numbers love Utah. The Jazz need to win this game only 36.4% of the time to dignify betting on them. What?! 36.4% of the time. This game is a very rare opportunity to get good upset money for a team that is actually a FAVORITE! The Jazz have a better road record at 14-12 than the Nuggets home record! The Nuggets are only 2-6 with Melo and Iverson in the lineup together. While things could possibly turn at any time, there’s certainly no logical reason to expect that it would be tonight! This is a classic example of a team that looks superior on paper being favored heavily when they are actually an underdog playing a very consistent, and far better team. Take the Jazz. It’s okay to load up on this one too. Never bet too much of your bank roll on any one game, but this one is beautiful, a gambler’s dream. The Jazz win 52% of the time, giving you a 16% rake on the odds. Take advantage of the mis-perception that Allen Iverson helps this team’s chances of winning and that Carlos Boozer is a devastating loss to the Jazz.

FOUR SOLID HOME FAVORITES THAT MAY FLY UNDER YOUR RADAR

There are three games tonight with pretty lousy teams playing at home, who happen to be favored. The reason that they’re favored is because the team’s coming to visit them re-define awful night in and night out, particularly on the road.

Sacramento (+145) @ New Jersey (-165)
Pick: New Jersey Nets
There is some risk involved in this game, because of the chance that Vince Carter and Jason Kidd may be apathetic after not being moved yesterday. Wait a second? Vince Carter’s always apathetic! Besides, this pick is not about the Nets, it’s about how awful Sacramento is. They’ve won a lowly 28% of their road games this year. In addition, they’re playing the second end of a back-to-back tonight; so there’s every reason to believe they’re not going to bring any intensity whatsoever. The Nets aren’t a lock, but the Kings are pretty close to one. Take New Jersey.

Seattle (+175) @ New Orleans (-205)
Pick: New Orleans Hornets
The reasoning behind this game is very similar. New Orleans does has a very solid home record, winning 60.7% of their games. But, the reason this game has such good value has everything to do with Seattle’s complete and utter lack of ability to win on the road. They have won two games in a row on the road, after setting a franchise record with 16 consecutive road losses! Picking NBA games is like picking stocks- buy low and sell high. The fact that they’ve won two in a row on the road coming into tonight has very little impact on their chances to win. However, because many people watch Sportscenter, or read the local Seattle paper, they hear about how the Sonics are coming out of their funk. In reality, they just shot the ball well in two consecutive road games. They could easily play well and still lose this game tonight, but it’s more likely than not that they won’t play well. Their defense couldn’t stop the University of Washington. New Orleans will attack the basket. Seattle could win if they shoot the lights out, but it’s much more likely that they will not. Go with the Hornets.

Philadelphia (+145) @ Charlotte (-165)
Pick: Charlotte Bobcats
Not to beat a dead horse, but it’s truly amazing how frequently bad teams lose on the road in the NBA. Philadelphia has won a lowly 27.6% of their road games. They’d need to win this one 38% of the time to keep you from betting on Charlotte. The Bobcats aren’t an elite team by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re moving in the right direction and they’ve begun to show some flashes of what the future may hold. I don’t like betting streaks, but these teams may streak in opposite directions for the better part of a decade. Take the Bobcats.

Memphis (+175) @ Portland (-205)
Pick: Portland Trail Blazers
I saved the best game in this category for last. The reasoning is very consistent with the others, but the odds are significantly more in your favor. We don’t even need to talk about Portland, who is getting better this year and finally seems to have rid themselves of the cancers that bogged them down in the past. Let’s talk about Memphis. Memphis is a gambler’s dream, this is one horse we can probably ride all the home. They have won only 3 games on the road the entire season! It’s after the All Star Break! They are by far the NBA’s worst road team. This game has better odds than any favorite has since the break. I love Portland, because of Memphis. Don’t watch this game though, please, your eyes did nothing to deserve that. But, definitely get your money on Portland.

TWO VETERAN HEAVY ROAD FAVORITES YOU’VE GOT TO LOVE

Detroit (-140) @ Orlando (+120)
Pick: Detroit Pistons
Winning on the road in the NBA is all about having a calm, experienced approach that neutralizes the home team’s energy. The Pistons guards are extremely experienced and know how to manage the tempo. Being a young team with very fickle confidence, the Magic need their home crowd to be there for them all night. The Pistons will lull them to sleep with sound execution and solid defense. Oh, yeah, and they’re the best team in the East. They’re not favored by nearly enough. Take the Pistons.

Houston (-205) @ Atlanta (+175)
Pick: Houston Rockets
I love this kind of game. A big western powerhouse against a lottery bound Eastern Conference team. The Rockets are a very solid road team, and will not let themselves falter against the Hawks. Their defense will bother the Hawks at every position. Joe Johnson will have nightmares about Shane Battier all night tonight, and for good reason. The Rockets miss Yao, but time and time again, it’s been proven that McGrady is the man that they must have in the lineup to play to their potential. Houston is a solid favorite, but not enough. Take Houston.


ROUNDING IT OUT

Boston (+310) @ LA Lakers (-410)
Pick: Los Angeles Lakers
If you’re looking for a huge favorite that’s okay to bet on, I give the Lakers my blessing. I actually really like them, and I almost always like upsets in games with these kind of odds. But, Boston is god awful. The Lakers are well coached enough that a letdown of these proportions is highly unlikely. It’s hard to imagine Boston giving them much trouble in any scenario. This is a great game to top off a parlay, or to virtually guarantee yourself winning some money- even though it won’t be much. Party in Hollywood tonight. Take the Lakers.

Indiana (+190) @ Toronto (-220)
Pick: Indiana Pacers
This is a solid upset pick. I’m not madly in love with it, but there’s some value above the rake here. Indiana has a better overall record than Toronto for one. Toronto’s been a powerhouse at home, but you never know when that may come to an end; and Indiana only needs to win this one 34.5% of the time for you to bet it. Toronto’s very hot, time to sell them. Pick Indiana.

Milwaukee (+140) @ New York (-160)
Pick: New York Knicks
Yes, Michael Redd is back. The Bucks are playing much better than they were, which is good because they probably wouldn’t have been allowed to stay in the league otherwise. Redd gives the Bucks a chance every night, but he doesn’t make them anywhere near a favorite. Their interior defense is awful and the Knicks crew of henchmen should pour in a ton of points in the paint. This game’s got pretty good value, the only way the Bucks can win is if someone gets very hot, Redd may not even be enough. Take the Knicks.

Phoenix (-280) @ Minnesota (+240)
Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves
I hate picking against Phoenix, because they’re so much fun to watch. But, there are a couple good reasons to go with Minnesota tonight. First and foremost, Minnesota beat Phoenix, with Nash, very recently in Minnesota. They’ve been a solid club at home all year, winning 61.5% of their home games; playing in the Western Conference. I feel comfortable saying that they’ll win tonight more than 29.4% of the time Always takes a special night of some sort to beat Phoenix, I won’t dare guess when it’ll happen, just that it will happen. .Bet Minnesota, cheer for Phoenix- they play unbelievable ball.

NBA Betting Picks: 2/22/07

Sacramento (+190) @ Washington (-220)

Pick: Washington Wizards

The Matchup:

The Wizards are a pretty solid favorite in this game. But, I feel comfortable saying that they’re virtually a lock to win it. The Wizards have been under-appreciated all season, and will continue to surprise people, possibly all the way to the NBA Finals. The Kings are struggling, and it’s getting to that point in the season where the players are going to throw in the towel mentally. The Wizards on the other hand are battling for playoff position and know that these cream-puff home games are essential come April.

The Numbers:

The numbers scream Washington, and I almost always go with the numbers. The Wizards need to win this game 68.7% of the time to make the bet of value. So, we have to be pretty sure. They win 74.1% of their home games though. In addition, the Kings lose almost 81% of their road games! Most games have some gray area, not this one. Washington will win about 75% of the time, giving you a 6.3% margin on the line.

The Stars:

Agent Zero. Gilbert Arenas flew under the radar for far too long. He is completely un-guardable. But, Arenas doesn’t even need to have a good game for the Wizards to win from a scoring standpoint. Since Washington was demolished by Phoenix a few weeks ago, Arenas has incorporated a Nash-like ability to create passing angles via penetration into his game. If he’s not hot himself, he’ll get others involved and it will be more than enough.

On the other side of the coin, Mike Bibby could be traded today. If he’s traded, the Kings will literally be short-handed, and the odds are against them severely even if Bibby plays, this is a gold-mine of a bet.

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Chicago (+135) @ Cleveland (-155)

Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers

The Matchup:

What a rivalry this is growing back into. Ever since the days that Michael Jordan dropped the game-winner, and then almost kicked his defender, Craig Ehlo in the face while celebrating there’s always been a little extra going into this series.

This game will be won on the defensive end of the floor, and by rebounding the basketball. With the home-court energy and TNT in the house, you’ve got to expect Cleveland to win the hustle war.

The Numbers:

The numbers love Cleveland, and I love the numbers. Cleveland needs to win this game 60.8% of the time to make the bet of good value. They’ve won 74.1% of their home games. While the Bulls are a tough customer, they lose two-thirds of their road games. I’d say this game gives you a 7-8% margin on the line, which is enormous for a home-team favorite on National TV; or any game for that matter. So all those of you who want to watch your bet come through tonight, go ahead and take the Cavs. They’re a 68% shot to win.

The Stars:

There are plenty of good players on both teams, but only one of them is the best player in the NBA. This game, like every game involving Cleveland is all about LeBron James. The Bulls interior defense is solid and could present problems for him, but expect him to create a lot of points in the transition game coming from defensive stops. The Bulls tendency to take long-shots should create a lot of running opportunities for the Cavs. This game has the potential to be a serious blowout, expect to see some very strong runs from Cleveland and some razzle-dazzle from King James in the open-floor.