3/1/07
Los Angeles Clippers (+240) @ Seattle (-280)
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers
Again, a ridiculous line for exactly the same reasons as when these two teams played yesterday. Teams that win the first-end of a "home & home" are more likely to win the second game than they would be if the second game was just a random game against the same quality of opponent. The Clippers have struggled mightily on the road this year. Key Arena has been the fourth easiest place in the Western Conference to come up with a road victory this year, making the game easier than an average road game on the Clippers schedule.
I expect the Clippers to turn it into gear coming down the stretch. If they can find the energy to keep pushing the ball inside, the Sonics defense will do little to prevent easy baskets. Silence in the arena feels like applause for the road team. Seattle's fans, players and owners are very apathetic at this point in the season. It seems the initial boost from getting Rashard Lewis back has already worn off. People in Seattle don't need much of an excuse to depressed and apathetic. Neither does this under-achieving team of selfish verterans. Such an uncertain future makes it hard on any team.
Most importantly though, the Clippers only need to win this game 29.4% of the time to make the bet of good value. Take the Clippers- they are an underdog because of the home-road factor, but I feel very comfortable saying that they win this game much more often than 3 out of 10 times.
Cleveland (+425) @ Dallas (-550)
Pick: Dallas Mavericks
I never like the huge favorite, especially on National TV nights. But Dallas is that good. Their defense makes them very unsusceptible to upsets unless the other team has a freakish outside shooting night. I don't love this pick because the odds are so heavy in the Mav's favor. But Dallas does win 90% of it's home games........more than the 84.6% of the time they'd need to win at these odds, and Cleveland is an average road team. I'd leave it alone though, cause there's just too much uncertainty, and LeBron is capable of being special enough to win a game like this for his team, if he decides to try.
Charlotte (+240) @ Portland (-280)
Pick: Charlotte Bobcats
Okay, so they've lost two in a row where I liked them. No reason to stop liking them. If they win tonight, and you bet all three games, you'll still have made money on them during this 'awful' swing. You lose money by giving up on teams right at the moment they're going to make your faith pay off. It's like watching a stock crash everyday and then selling it at it's low, right before it rebounds. Neither of these teams is very good this year, and usually when that's the case, there's a lot of uncertainty involved in the outcome. Keep riding the Bobcats. Remember, they are an underdog tonight as well. More than 50% of the time, they're going to lose. But unless you're god- don't try to decide which games they're going to win- just know the frequency with which they'll win in a given situation. And they will win this game more than the 29.4% of the time that the odds require them to.
I'm going to say that they'll win this game more like 40% of the time. Take another shot at the upset money. Then do it again. And again. As long as the odds are right. This is about winning in the long-run. BOBCATS BOBCATS BOBCATS.
Los Angeles Clippers (+240) @ Seattle (-280)
Pick: Los Angeles Clippers
Again, a ridiculous line for exactly the same reasons as when these two teams played yesterday. Teams that win the first-end of a "home & home" are more likely to win the second game than they would be if the second game was just a random game against the same quality of opponent. The Clippers have struggled mightily on the road this year. Key Arena has been the fourth easiest place in the Western Conference to come up with a road victory this year, making the game easier than an average road game on the Clippers schedule.
I expect the Clippers to turn it into gear coming down the stretch. If they can find the energy to keep pushing the ball inside, the Sonics defense will do little to prevent easy baskets. Silence in the arena feels like applause for the road team. Seattle's fans, players and owners are very apathetic at this point in the season. It seems the initial boost from getting Rashard Lewis back has already worn off. People in Seattle don't need much of an excuse to depressed and apathetic. Neither does this under-achieving team of selfish verterans. Such an uncertain future makes it hard on any team.
Most importantly though, the Clippers only need to win this game 29.4% of the time to make the bet of good value. Take the Clippers- they are an underdog because of the home-road factor, but I feel very comfortable saying that they win this game much more often than 3 out of 10 times.
Cleveland (+425) @ Dallas (-550)
Pick: Dallas Mavericks
I never like the huge favorite, especially on National TV nights. But Dallas is that good. Their defense makes them very unsusceptible to upsets unless the other team has a freakish outside shooting night. I don't love this pick because the odds are so heavy in the Mav's favor. But Dallas does win 90% of it's home games........more than the 84.6% of the time they'd need to win at these odds, and Cleveland is an average road team. I'd leave it alone though, cause there's just too much uncertainty, and LeBron is capable of being special enough to win a game like this for his team, if he decides to try.
Charlotte (+240) @ Portland (-280)
Pick: Charlotte Bobcats
Okay, so they've lost two in a row where I liked them. No reason to stop liking them. If they win tonight, and you bet all three games, you'll still have made money on them during this 'awful' swing. You lose money by giving up on teams right at the moment they're going to make your faith pay off. It's like watching a stock crash everyday and then selling it at it's low, right before it rebounds. Neither of these teams is very good this year, and usually when that's the case, there's a lot of uncertainty involved in the outcome. Keep riding the Bobcats. Remember, they are an underdog tonight as well. More than 50% of the time, they're going to lose. But unless you're god- don't try to decide which games they're going to win- just know the frequency with which they'll win in a given situation. And they will win this game more than the 29.4% of the time that the odds require them to.
I'm going to say that they'll win this game more like 40% of the time. Take another shot at the upset money. Then do it again. And again. As long as the odds are right. This is about winning in the long-run. BOBCATS BOBCATS BOBCATS.
posted by Gowizards2682 | 10:13 AM
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